October Recap and Looking Ahead to November

October 2024 delivered a mix of signals in the U.S. economy, highlighted by softer job growth, steady inflation pressures overseas, and volatility in the stock markets. Here’s what stood out last month and what investors should keep an eye on as we head into November:

Employment Data in Focus

In October, the U.S. added just 12,000 jobs—far below expectations of 100,000 and a significant drop from September’s revised figure of 223,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, with impacts from Boeing’s employee strike and severe weather contributing to the slowdown (New York Post, November 1, 2024). Though this slower growth may raise concerns, it’s part of the larger economic picture we’ll continue to monitor closely.

Inflation Pressures Rising Abroad

In the eurozone, inflation rose to 2%, slightly above expectations, driven by economic growth and low unemployment. This increase may influence future rate cut decisions by the European Central Bank, potentially impacting global markets (The Times, October 2024). While U.S. inflation has shown signs of moderation, ongoing international adjustments could have ripple effects.

Stock Market Performance

October was a challenging month for equities, with major indices showing declines (Financial Times, October 31, 2024):

• S&P 500: Fell by 1.9%, its sharpest drop in nearly two months.

• Nasdaq Composite: Lost 2.8%, largely due to a sell-off in tech stocks.

• Dow Jones: Down 0.9% (-378 points), reflecting overall market caution.

This market dip was largely driven by fiscal policy concerns, persistent inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions (Wall Street Journal, October 31, 2024). On the upside, commodities like gold, silver, and oil posted positive returns, highlighting their value as hedges in turbulent times (MarketWatch, October 2024).

Looking Ahead to November

Several key factors are likely to influence November’s market landscape:

• Federal Reserve Actions: The Fed is anticipated to make a quarter-point rate cut as inflation shows continued moderation, offering further economic support (New York Post, November 1, 2024).

• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts and diplomatic strains may continue to affect market sentiment, with safe-haven assets likely benefiting if uncertainties persist.

• Corporate Earnings: As more companies report their quarterly earnings, we’ll gain insight into the strength of consumer demand and business health as the year ends.

With all these moving pieces, staying focused on the long term is critical. While the headlines may shift, maintaining a disciplined approach and sticking to one’s financial goals are key to weathering an unpredictable market environment.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in light of these developments, please feel free to reach out to Jackie or me. We’re here to help you navigate these changing times and keep your financial goals on track.