Managing Expectations in the Stock Market: Understanding Market Declines and Staying the Course
Investing in the stock market can be one of the most effective ways to build wealth over time, but it also comes with its fair share of volatility. As investors, it's crucial to have realistic expectations, particularly regarding market declines. History has shown that fluctuations are normal and part of the journey, but emotional reactions to these fluctuations can derail even the most well-laid financial plans.
How Often Do Market Declines Happen?
To set the right expectations, let's look at how often the S&P 500 has experienced declines over the years. According to data from J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
5% declines happen about three times per year, on average.
10% declines (commonly referred to as "corrections") occur once per year.
20% declines (bear markets) happen approximately once every six years.
While these downturns can be unsettling, it’s important to remember that markets also recover. For instance, since 1928, the S&P 500 has generated an average annual return of about 10%. [1] [2] The path is not a straight line, but the long-term upward trend is undeniable.
"Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors of all time, famously advised: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” This is more than just a clever saying; it’s a mindset that has helped many navigate the ups and downs of the market.
When the market is experiencing a sharp decline, the natural response for many investors is to panic and sell. However, Buffett’s wisdom suggests that times of fear present opportunities. After all, some of the best buying opportunities arise when prices are depressed and everyone else is selling. Staying calm and maintaining discipline during these periods is often the key to long-term success.
Strategies for Managing Volatility
To better manage emotions and stay the course during market downturns, here are a few strategies that can help:
Focus on the long term: Over time, the stock market tends to go up, despite the short-term bumps along the way. If your investment horizon is 10, 20, or 30 years, daily or even yearly fluctuations are less important.
Consider dollar-cost averaging: Rather than trying to time the market, dollar-cost averaging allows you to invest a fixed amount at regular intervals, which can help smooth out the effects of volatility and reduce the emotional impact of market swings.
Portfolio checks during declines: Constantly checking your portfolio during downturns can heighten anxiety and lead to impulsive decisions. Please reach out to us if you find yourself in this position.
Diversify your investments: A well-diversified portfolio can help mitigate risk. By spreading your investments across different asset classes, you reduce the impact of a decline in any one area.
Conclusion: Stay Calm and Stay Invested
Market declines are inevitable, but they don’t have to derail your long-term plans. Understanding how often these drops happen, and approaching them with a calm, long-term mindset, is essential for any investor. As Warren Buffett wisely said, it’s during times of fear and uncertainty that opportunities often present themselves. By managing your expectations and keeping emotions in check, you’ll be better positioned to succeed in your investing journey.
Have Questions? We’re Here to Help
If you have any questions about how market volatility might impact your portfolio or need guidance on your investment strategy, feel free to reach out to me or Jackie. We’re always here to provide clarity and ensure your financial plan aligns with your goals. Don’t hesitate to schedule a review or give us a call if you’d like to discuss your investments in more detail.
[1] Standard & Poor’s. "S&P 500 Historical Performance."
[2] Shiller, Robert J. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton University Press, 2000.